Navigational Study
Briefing Notes by Steve Gration

Gold Coast Bulletin reporter, Peter Cameron, claims in his article in the Weekend Bulletin (14-15th March 2008) that he has recently obtained the 'secret' Navigational Study for a Gold Coast ship terminal through the Freedom of Information Act. The study has, in fact, been in the public domain since September 2005.

It is a shame Cameron took over three years to find the report but even more of a shame that he is unable to apply any sensible analysis to his reading of it. It appears Cameron doesn't even read the reports of his fellow journalists at the Gold Coast Bulletin. In the same edition that Cameron states, when the cruise ship terminal was 'canned...Gold Coast tourism...was dudded', his colleagues fill the first five pages with the headlines 'Black Death', 'Too Little Too late', '...it's a forbidden island', 'Penalty in millions', 'Tears flow in paradise' and 'Calamity for creatures' in relation to the devastating oil spill from a ship off Moreton Island on the 11th March 2009. Luckily the Gold Coast has been largely spared such a 'calamity' but not without a fight.

On the 9th September 2005 a Navigational Simulation Study claiming to test the feasibility of safely docking ships on the Gold Coast was released to the public by the then Deputy Premier, Anna Bligh, after the Queensland Government had held it in confidence for the previous nine months. The document was headed, 'Navigational Study Gold Coast Cruise Ship Terminal Queensland, Australia at Star Cruise Ship Simulator, December 2004'.

A Government comment in the report stated the following:

The feasibility and safety of docking large vessels in the Gold Coast seaway is based only on 'rough data provided by the client' (Qld. Gov. Study Dec. 2004, Pg. 10: 4.1 Calculations)

An analysis of the study by SOSA led to the following information and actions:

-    The Navigational Study was conducted on computer simulators in Malaysia by Star Cruises and Mike Evans who subsequently became a member of a consortium submitting an Expression of Interest for building a ship terminal on the Gold Coast. Evans (ex-National Party Secretary during the Bjelke-Peterson era) has consistently sought ways to acquire land on the Spit for private development over the past two decades and made his desire known publicly during that time. Star Cruise Ships who run the ship simulator where the study took place also conduct 'gambling' tours through Asia onboard their casino vessels based out of Malaysia.

-    A foreign ship company and an entrepreneurial developer therefore conducted the Navigational Study on a $150,000 Qld. Government grant from the Department. of State Development in what is supposed to be an unbiased study.

-    On 7th  November 2005, at a meeting with the Assistant Coordinator General of the Department of State Development, it was pointed out that the base figures and methodology for calculating the feasibility and safety of ships docking in Gold Coast Seaway in the Evans/Star Cruise study was flawed.

-    On the 28th  Nov. 2005. SOSA and many individuals referred  to the flawed Navigational Study in response to a Queensland Government call for feedback on the draft terms of reference for an Environmental Impact Statement on the project.

-    On the 12th December 2005 a SOSA delegation visited Brisbane and once again point out to the Assistant Coordinator General that the Navigational Study was flawed and to proceed to Expressions of Interest from developers and an EIS was irrelevant because an accurate study of safety of ships docking and leaving under Gold Coast conditions had not been conducted.


-    Navigational Study Flaws:

Ships docking were only ever tested in waves 0-1.3 metres high (stated as 'max. wave heights' for the Gold Coast in the study) There is no evidence ship simulations ever tested above 1.3 metre waves to reflect the true maximum swell and wave heights encountered by the Gold Coast throughout the year.  
    
Ships docking were only tested in a tidal current speed of 1.3 knots when it is known the Gold Coast Seaway current runs at 4-6 knots and up to 7 knots during floodwaters and an outgoing tide.

The maximum wind speed of 20 knots for safely docking ships and used in the study calculations is accurate for the many mornings on the Gold Coast when hypothetically a ship might be docking. The study, however did not provide statistics for afternoon winds when for over 30% of the time the winds are well over 20 knots (Commonwealth Government statistics) and while ships would be leaving the dock.

No tests related to the ships safely leaving the dock are tabled at all in the Evans/Star Cruise Navigational Study (when winds are often over 20 knots) only for ships entering the Seaway. A ship-master will only dock at a port in the morning if the weather conditions in the afternoon are also safe to leave the port.

All three ships in the study had difficulty navigating the 'outer-channel' and Seaway in north-easterly winds which are the predominant winds in the summer cruise ship season.

The smaller ship 'Arcadia' failed nearly all tests and was not suitable for the Gold Coast even after massive dredging. This is the type of ship that most often operates in Australian waters and similar to current P&O vessels. The other two ships tested do not operate in Australian waters and represent less than 5% of ships operating around the world with bow-thrusters for maneuverability. The 'Superstar Leo' and 'Golden Princess' are casino/bar ships operating  in south East Asia where patrons book onto Gambling trips for 3-4 days and nights. If these ships were to visit Australia we wonder if Jupiter's Casino etc. would be too pleased about casinos ships visiting the Gold Coast.

Even these two 'state of the art' ships in the Navigational Study failed many test runs when attempting to dock through a hypothetically dredged Outer-channel, Seaway Entrance, Seaway Channel and Broadwater Spin-basin. The Evans/Star Cruise report writers, however, averaged the safety scores when this occurred. But you cannot average safety. If a ship scores less than 6 out of 8 on any of the 4 sectors while docking it should be deemed an unsafe run! Several times in the report even the averaging figure is calculated incorrectly e.g.

'Superstar Leo' Run No.107:  0, 0, 8, 8.  Average 8. Safe.
 An average should be calculated by dividing 16 by 4 = 4.(Unsafe!) But the report states the average on this run is 8 and safe!

In fact the scores of zero on Sector 1 of the 'Superstar Leo' Run 107 (outer-channel) means the vessel most likely ran aground so it doesn't get to travel to sectors 2 (also grounded), 3 and 4. And all this in what proves to be erroneous and seriously underestimated tide and current speeds and wave heights.

This safety methodology is totally flawed and includes inaccurate meteorological data related to wind speeds, current speeds and wave heights and excludes the testing of safe docking in wind directions which often occur on the Gold Coast including Westerlies (especially around August), North-Westerlies and Northerlies.

Information SOSA received from independent Ship-Masters with significant experience navigating the waters of South-East Queensland stated, 'The cruise ship proposal defies all maritime logic, the proposed docking location is on a lee-shore with prevailing winds from the south-east, so a cruise ship could smash into a break-wall.' To have based the decision to build a ship terminal on the Gold Coast using the Evans/Star Cruise Navigational study would have potentially led to the sort of oil spill disaster we have just witnessed on Moreton, Bribie and Stradbroke Islands and the Sunshine Coast beaches.

If the dredging for a ship terminal had been commenced or been completed by now it would have been totally obliterated by the cyclone and storm swells of  March 2006, March-April 2007, March-April 2008 and most recently the swells generated by Cyclone Hamish. The need for re-construction and dredging of the channels and spin basin would have been continuous and at whose cost? And at whose cost every time a storm or large swell hits the Gold Coast? World Shipping Insurers will not insure ships that attempt to cross sand-bars to dock (even if they have been dredged) because of the high risks of navigational problems and failure due to the behaviour of shifting and compressed sand.

SOSA believes, therefore, that ships would rarely if ever be able to safely dock on the Gold Coast through a dredged Ocean Outer-Channel, Seaway and Broadwater. So what use is a ship terminal that is never used? The ship terminal appeared to be an excuse to raise revenue from the selling off of Public Open Space and Waterways and/or the giving away of Public land to private developers to generate government  lease-income.

Even on an economic basis the Gold Coast ship terminal failed miserably. The Queensland Government's official estimate for tourism income from the docking of 26 cruise ships per year on the Gold Coast was $4.6 million per year. An independent University study showed that just the activity of surfing on South Stradbroke Island brings over $20 million per year to the north Gold Coast. This University study focused purely on surfing as an activity on South Stradbroke Island and did not take into account the additional economic benefits of activities on the Spit beaches, fishing and diving in the Seaway, boating, whale-watching, sea-kayaking etc. These activities bring huge economic benefits to the Gold Coast and would have suffered severe negative impacts or in the case of dive-operators the total destruction of their activities had the dredging and construction for a ship terminal proceeded on the Gold Coast.


Steve Gration
SOSA President
Gold Coast

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